2012年3月13日
温家宝任内最后一次记者会上说道
没有政治体制改革的成功
经济体制改革不可能进行到底
已经取得的成果可能得而复失
文革这样的历史悲剧还有可能重新发生
温家宝通常被视作中共影帝
用来讽刺他为自己塑造成节俭的民本主义者
根据纽约时报的调查记录
温家宝的妻子儿子兄弟及其他近亲
聚积了超过27亿美元的巨额资产
他在最后一次记者会上的发言
如果是放在今天
不仅会被视作叛党反贼的言论
更会被小粉红和极端民粹主义者喷的体无完肤
更有可能面临牢狱之灾
短短十二年
中国的社会环境又一次发生翻天覆地的变化
其政治光谱的迁移幅度之大
与文革和改开足以相提并论
那么究竟是什么原因
让原本被寄予厚望的保守接班人习近平
摇身一变走上了复辟帝制的独裁道路？
又是为什么胡温时期休养生息
闷声发财的发展路径无法坚持下去？
今天的影片将为您讲解
习近平的中国梦
这个抽象的概念到底是什么
以及为何2024年是中国梦彻底破灭的历史节点
2012年习近平走上台前
成为中国下一代领导人的时候
恐怕没有一个人会想到
十二年后今天
人们会无比怀念胡温时期
如果对照中国历史
胡温时期就如同西汉时期的文景之治
汉朝初年
社会经过漫长的战乱
社会经济薄弱
幸运的是
朝廷推崇黄老之学
对内采取轻徭薄赋
与民休息
对外维持和平
用和亲换取边境稳定
一方面是朝廷正确的发展策略
另一方面得益于汉朝初年
中华帝国正处于马尔萨斯人口曲线的底部
人地矛盾相对缓和
因此才出现了文景之治的盛世
然而紧接着上台的
就是一位雄心勃勃的君主
对于中华帝国的编户齐民们
一位彪炳史册的君主
往往意味着平民悲惨生活的开始
两千一百多年前汉武帝时期的百姓
与今天中华人民共和国的人矿
实现了一场跨越古今的命运重叠
与文景之治对外软弱
对内放权的战略一样
胡温时期也带有明显的轻重之分
政治放两旁
经济摆中间
对外当然主要是针对美国
除了在个别重大问题上坚持己见以外
绝大多数情况下保持与美国的良好关系
所以在胡温时期
中国是可以算作美国国家利益共同体的一部分
对内民进国退
对于民间经济的发展给予相当大程度的宽容
对于地方政府也采取放权
当然这也导致了胡温时期腐败猖獗
已经到了无官不贪
升官与发财视作一体两面的夸张地步
而这也给日后习近平以反腐为名义
打着一个无比政治正确的口号铲除异己留下伏笔
不过为什么那个时期贪污腐败如此严重
但百姓对于政府的评价却比今天高得多呢？
原因在于
胡温时期官员可以赚大钱
平民百姓也可以喝到汤
在整个国家经济都在高速增长的年代
增量如同蜜糖一般
润滑了民与官之间紧张的关系
实际上中国人从来不介意官员贪腐
否则升官发财这两个词也不会变成一个固定组合
只要自己的生活可以越来越好
中国人对于贪污腐败的容忍程度
或许是全世界最高的
因为只有看到官员们吃香喝辣
夜夜笙箫
百姓才会觉得自己或者自己的后代
有机会成为这样的特权阶级
生活才能有希望
那么胡温时期的道路为什么习近平不继续执行下去
原因固然有习近平本人性格和判断力等方面
但更重要的是
中国共产党确实在2012年这个历史节点
走到了必须改革的地步
这个改革并不是美国逼迫
也不是中国的中产阶级开始寻求政治权力
而是中共作为中国唯一统治集团的合法性开始丧失
中国历史上政权合法性
是历朝历代都极为重视的一件事
这来源于中国文化传统中的天命观
如果无法对自己政权合法性有一个完美的解释
或者说讲一个能够让所有人接受的故事
那么这个政权极为容易被颠覆
纵观中国古代史，除了血统继承外
只有两种手段被视作天命所归
其一是禅让，无论是自愿的
还是更为常见的强迫
禅让都是无可争议的政权替代途径
例如汉献帝禅让曹丕
东晋司马德文禅让宋武帝
后周恭帝禅让赵匡胤等
另一种手段则是暴力革命
例如元灭宋
清灭明
中共最初的政权合法性同样来自于暴力革命
但特殊点在于
前朝中华民国并非彻底灭亡
而是在台湾依然保留有完整的政权
这也是为什么即使再开明的中共领导人
始终不会对台湾问题松口的原因
但无论如何
中共在大陆的政权合法性
来自于暴力革命是毋庸置疑的
但是在大跃进和文革等一系列惨剧过后
中共实际上已经证明了
原教旨主义中共无力治理好这个国家
只能带来无尽的灾难和恐慌
因此在80年代
中共的统治实际上处于风雨飘摇的状态
外部环境也发生了变化
冷战的胜负已然明晰
几乎所有的共产主义国家纷纷抛弃了共产党
开始走向正常化道路
中国也没有例外
只是区别在于这个进程被8964强行打断
然而在血腥的屠杀之后
中共另辟蹊径找到了另一条道路
可以算作是中共这个统治集团
和全体中国人的一场对赌协议
即利用经济发展换取政权合法性
如果你有在中国和其他资本主义国家长期生活过
你一定会有相同的体会
那就是中国才是这个世界上最资本主义的国家
在中国
你可以明目张胆视劳动法为废纸
工会沦为摆设
而中国人对此最多只有怨言
却鲜有人提出政府的失职
原因在于中共宣传部门四十年来
不遗余力的推广这一意识形态
即经济发展高于一切
在经济发展面前
民主自由平等法制等社会主义核心价值观
统统不重要
甚至还会潜移默化的传播韩国
和台湾在独裁时期的经济发展
以及威权体制的新加坡来佐证这一观点
而反面例子被举得最多的
自然就是民主国家印度和拉美诸国
这种论证方法其实也是中共特别擅长的一种诡辩论
它会举一些正确的孤例
达到以偏概全的目的
以全世界为样本来看
毫无疑问发达国家几乎全是民主国家
而发展中国家和落后国家
政治体制则是五花八门
所以我们能够得出的正确结论应该是
成为发达国家的
大概率是民主国家
而独裁专制国家
大概率是不能成为发达国家的
任何情况下都有例外
但数学已经告诉你哪一条路径的成功概率更大
当代中国人对于经济第一的思想
已经达到了入脑入魂的地步
因此在经济持续发展
有人吃肉有人喝汤的年代
中共的政权可以说是稳如泰山
但是成也萧何，败也萧何
中共把全部合法性压在经济发展这一根弦上
就注定这个政权是极容易两极摇摆的
你可以理解为
中共是一个患有双相情感障碍的精神病患者
人如果得了这种病
就会在自信心爆棚和极度低落抑郁沮丧中疯狂摇摆
没有中间状态
中共则是在政权极其稳固天命所归
和万人唾弃风雨飘摇中左右横跳
其触发条件就是经济
甚至不需要经济出现2024年这样的衰退
只需要发展速度大不如前
社会进入稳定状态
中共的双向情感障碍就会直接从众望所归滑向倒台
在胡温末期
中国的经济发展已经出现疲软的态势
这其实并不是胡温政策出了问题
而是任何一个国家都不可能永远保持高速经济增长
需要注意的是
中共合法性的来源是
高速经济增长
高速和增长这两者缺一不可
任何一个国家在科技没有跨越式发展的情况下
经济增长曲线一定会趋于平缓
经济放缓不是一件好事
但也不是一件坏事
这只是一件符合自然发展规律的事情
然而对于总想着人定胜天的中共来说
仅仅是趋于平稳的经济发展
都足以给这个统治集团判死刑
其实韩国和台湾已经走出了一条非常明确的
可以复制的
已经被证明是成功可行的路径
那就是主动改革
他们都是在经济发展到瓶颈后
开启民主化改革
成功捅破中等收入陷阱
踏入名副其实的发达国家
这条路径是最理想的
如果中国可以走上这条路
十四亿中国人应该会成为
史上最幸运的一批炎黄子孙
你可以想象一个自由民主
开放包容
拥有十四亿统一市场和良好基础建设的中国
会对全人类产生多么巨大的福祉
目前来看，这条路不能说完全断绝
但实践的可能性已经微乎其微
退而求其次
新加坡模式更具有实操性
实行真法治
缓慢推进民主
认真审视中国传统价值观
必须要承认的一个事实是
其实中国人对于民主这件事并不是特别追求
因为传统中国人距离政治太过遥远
从古至今都缺少参政议政的机遇
自然也就丧失了参政议政的能力
所以新加坡模式一度被视为
中国最有可能的政治转型路径
即威权体制下的法治国家
就个人而言
我认为让中国一夜之间成为美国式民主国家
或者威斯敏斯特体系
是不现实的
理想的状态是长期处于威权体制下的法治国家
用漫长的时间去培养公民意识
提高参政议政的能力
而后通过韩台路径实现民主
可惜的是
习近平没有选择这其中的任何一条
他创造了一条前无古人的路径
一个充满了共产幻想式浪漫主义
和中华帝国主义宿命观的杂糅体
用一个山寨式的名字进行包装
这就是中国梦
所有人能知道
中国梦这个概念就是对美国梦的拙劣模仿
美国梦的出现和实践是有其历史独特性的
这一理念根植于独立宣言中的人生而平等
并享有生命，自由和追求幸福的权利
具体到个人实践
就是任何人都可以通过自己的努力迈向巅峰
美国梦之所以能够成为美国人信仰一般的存在
得益于美国自由经济的体系
和始终保持通畅的社会流动性
以及优越的地理资源潜力
在这一点上也可以看作是美国例外论的一例证明
那么中国梦具体指什么
首先可以排除人生而平等
以及通过自己的努力持续改善生活状态
因为中国梦的主体并不是中国人
而是看作统一大帝国的中国
中国梦是习近平为了解决
中共统治合法性的一次社会实验
如上文所说
8964之后中共的政权合法性与高速经济发展绑定
思想和政治分道扬镳
而习近平正是要改变这一困局
他试图通过中国梦这个宏大概念
将经济与思想合二为一
建立一个基于个人崇拜的工业斯巴达
时常与中国梦一同出现的
还有另外一个宏大概念
那就是中华民族伟大复兴
中国梦和中华民族伟大复兴
其实是同一件事的一体两面
中国梦的拥趸们大多以城市小资产阶级
和物质财富相对富有的人群为主
因为中国梦是对未来的一种期许
这些人在中国本就过着相对不错的生活
必须要用一个更加美好幻境才能得到他们的支持
而中华民族伟大复兴的受众
自然就是受教育程度差
社会地位较低的小粉红以及老粉红群体
得益于他们贫瘠的历史知识和视野
中共可以相当容易的向他们植入一个所谓汉唐盛世
万国来朝的美好幻想
并以复兴传统中华帝国的地位作为终极目标
可以看得出来
对于个体的中国人来说
无论是中国梦还是伟大复兴
都是极其虚无缥缈的宏大概念
既没有可以执行的步骤
也没有明确的目标
但是当我们的视角从老百姓转移到习近平
把中国视为他的囊中之物看待时
就会推理出完整的图景
具体体现在三个方面
第一自然是建立近乎于君主制的专制体系
事实上现在的习近平
除了没有皇帝这个称号以外
已经用了皇帝全部的实际权力
他通过王岐山等酷吏，铲除异己
消灭了团派
上海帮
甚至太子党等势力
再通过各种工作小组
实现了对国务院行政权力的架空
独揽大权为一身
此外还有在各地各公司中建立所谓党支部
党群服务中心等组织
进一步瓦解民间组织力量
实现了习近平的意志可以直接从中南海传达到基层
这一点可以在新冠三年的灾难中得到证实
第二是在外交上
中国彻底抛弃韬光养晦的策略
转而以新世界领袖的角色
从一带一路联通欧亚大陆
和在非洲进行的经济殖民可以看出
习近平理想中的中国
应当统治欧亚非三个大洲组成的世界岛
世界岛理论是一种分析全球地缘政治的角度
核心思想是地球由两部分组成
欧洲亚洲非洲是中央的世界岛
是地域最大
人口最多的陆地，是一个整体
在世界岛的周围有一系列孤立的土地
如南北美洲
澳洲大陆，日本和印尼菲律宾等岛国
我们不确定习近平是否受到了世界岛理论的影响
但目前来看他确实在想办法将欧亚非整合
所以也能从中共的宣传口径上看到
中共对于欧洲的态度要远远好于美国
因为在中国的视角中
欧洲是未来有成为盟友的可能性
但美国绝无可能
而且从习近平对于铁路运输
尤其是高铁的偏爱
他认为大陆内部的高铁运输
可以比海洋运输更加快捷
可以让欧亚非在交通上更紧密的连为一体
所以我们可以看到
中国宁愿把钱花在非洲和中东
也不愿意投资本国的教育和医疗
以改善人民的生活
所以当小粉红体验到上学难和看病贵的时候
不要抱怨祖国
小粉红的牺牲正是为习近平的大欧亚非共荣圈买单
第三是经济上
很显然习近平是喜欢计划经济远胜市场经济的
但是他自己也知道
想要保持中国的竞争力
完全的计划经济是走不通的
经过四十年改革开放的中国想要倒退回朝鲜模式
其阻力不比中国完全转变为自由经济更小
所以习近平的经济设想
其实就是中国一直以来的社会主义基本经济制度
即公有制为主体
多种所有制共同发展
话虽这么说，但实际上过去几十年
中国的公有制经济保持了一定的克制
给私有制经济留出了广袤的发展空间
但习近平要改变这一现状
他认为市场经济的缺点在于分散力量
难以做大事
经常在墙内被说道的例子
就是美国结束太空竞赛后
不再向航天事业大幅投资
从而导致美国航天技术看起来似乎陷入了停滞
当然了，现在SPACE X等民营航天公司
再一次打了共产党的脸
习近平想要的是
无论央企国企还是私企
都要听从他的指挥
当他说要大炼芯片的时候
所有人都要朝着这个方向走
当他说要发展电动汽车的时候
造手机的小米和盖烂尾楼的恒大也开始建厂造车
那么习近平脑海中的中国梦和伟大复兴
为什么在2024年可以宣告破灭了呢？
直接原因是新冠疫情这场意外
而根本原因是对于人的局限性的认知不足
计划经济的本质依然是人
因为再宏大的计划
也需要实际的人来设定和执行
而共产党的计划经济
在今天的中国完全取决人习近平个人的喜好
或许他有可能蒙对了
但更大的概率是脱离实际
习近平显然不会承认自己不是无所不能的
他是真的认为自己可以为全人类指明方向
所以这种对于人类局限性认知的错误
从本质上就决定了
凡是计划的就一定会变化
新冠疫情就是这个意外
习近平为了保持自己的颜面
急于向世界
尤其是美国证明中国制度的优越性
只能在清零封控这条路上走到黑
代价则是彻底重创中国经济
2021年中国经济最后一次回光返照
自那之后便一蹶不振
在短短两年时间里形势陡转直下
对于政府来说
本就勉强维持平衡的财政如雪崩般瓦解
从事业单位到政府机关
降薪裁冗一片哀鸿
中央财政和地方财政的矛盾可谓是一触即发
正如中华帝国史上多次轮回的那样
对于民间来说
生育率和躺平潮就是中国人民无声的抵抗
尤其是生育率的下行速度简直骇人听闻
已经跌落到世界倒数第二
并且在可预见的未来成为倒数第一不是梦
而中共开放二胎三胎的政策
如古代王朝末期那些可笑的政策一样滑稽
躺平潮则重创中国消费
学过经济学的都知道
消费就是一切经济活动的起点
是所有社会活动链条的发动机
有消费
问题还能解决
没有消费
只有死路一条
所以我们看到在疫情后
消费火爆的美国迅速走出低迷
而中国则陷入通缩的陷阱无法自拔
新冠这场意外对于中共最大的威胁
其实还不是财政和民间
而是中共自8964后一直竭力维系的威信
崩塌了
我一直都认为
中国的小粉红数量是多
但他们的真实比例远远低于他们在互联网上声量
因为在墙内的环境中
只有粉红发言可以被传播
久而久之
理性的声音也就选择的沉默
但沉默不代表他们不存在
白纸革命就是典型
在白纸革命爆发的那一夜前
没有人会想到
通常被视作粉红重灾区的大学校园里
竟然可以组织起规模庞大的抗议行为
中共诞生地的上海
民众可以街头与政府势力正面对抗
在新疆这个被中共铁拳蹂躏的土地上
勇敢的市民可以冲进市政府
让那些高高在上的中共官员们瑟瑟发抖
习近平下台
共产党下台的口号
如野火一般在中国所有大中城市蔓延
不仅让共产党颜面扫地
也让中国老百姓意识到
原来公民权利是有用的
很多人认为白纸革命没有延续下去
令人扼腕叹息
但我们更要承认白纸革命的作用
对于共产党来说
面子实际上比里子更重要
无论是佩罗西访台的打脸
还是瑞士爱德华兹虚假新闻的回旋镖
这些伤及中共威信的事件
正在将中共拉入塔西佗陷阱的深渊
除了新冠疫情之外
还有很多类似的意外事件
让中国梦在2024年彻底成为泡影
例如美国AI技术的横空出世
马斯克的火箭回收与星舰实现航天技术跨越式发展
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的战争陷入持久战的泥潭
诸如此类或大或小的事件
都超出了习近平个人能力可以掌控的区间
最终导致中国陷入如今举步维艰的状态
利息的本质是对未来的预期
如果人们对于未来的预期高于现在
那么就会助推利率上涨
反之则下降
人言会撒谎
但数字不会
中国未来低利率时代背后意味着什么
已经不言而喻
March 13, 2012
Wen Jiabao said at his last press conference during his tenure
Without the success of political reform
The reform of the economic system cannot be carried out to the end
What has been achieved may be lost
Historical tragedies like the Cultural Revolution may happen again
Wen Jiabao is usually regarded as the best actor of the Communist Party of China
To satirize his portrayal of himself as a thrifty nationalist
According to New York Times investigative records
Wen Jiabao’s wife, sons, brothers and other close relatives
Accumulated huge assets of more than $2.70 billion
His remarks at the last press conference
If it were today
Would not only be seen as treason and kleptocracy
It will be sprayed by little pinks and extreme populists
More likely to face jail time
Just twelve years
China’s social environment has undergone another earth-shaking change
The extent of the shift in its political spectrum
It is comparable enough to the Cultural Revolution and the reform
So what is the reason?
Let Xi Jinping, the conservative successor who had high hopes,
Turned into a dictatorship that restored the monarchy?
And why did you recuperate during the Hu-Wen period?
The development path of making a fortune in silence cannot be maintained?
Today’s video will explain to you
Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream
What is this abstract concept?
And why 2024 is the historical node where the Chinese dream is completely shattered
In 2012, Xi Jinping took to the stage
To become the next generation of Chinese leaders
I’m afraid no one will think of it
Twelve years later today
People will miss the Hu-Wen period very much
If you compare Chinese history
The Hu-Wen period is like the rule of Wen Jing in the Western Han Dynasty
Early Han Dynasty
After a long period of war
Socioeconomic weakness
Fortunately
The imperial court respected the study of Huang Lao
Take a light and thin force internally
Rest with the people
Foreign peacekeeping
Exchange peace with relatives for border stability
On the one hand, the court’s correct development strategy
On the other hand, it benefited from the early years of the Han Dynasty
The Chinese Empire is at the bottom of the Malthusian population curve
The contradiction between man and land is relatively eased
Therefore, the prosperous era of the rule of Wen Jing appeared
However, immediately after taking the stage
An ambitious monarch
For the editors of the Chinese Empire, Qi Min
A monarch who made history
Often meant the beginning of a miserable life for civilians
The people of Emperor Wu of Han more than 2,100 years ago
With the people and mines of today’s People’s Republic of China
Realized a destiny overlap that spans ancient and modern times
External weakness with the rule of Wen Jing
The same strategy of decentralization
The Hu-Wen period also has obvious differences in severity
Put politics aside
The economy is in the middle
Externally, of course, it is mainly aimed at the United States
Except for insisting on individual major issues
Maintain good relations with the United States in the vast majority of cases
So during the Hu-Wen period
China can be considered part of the American national interest community
Advancing the country and retreating from the country
Extend a considerable degree of tolerance to the development of the private economy
Decentralization of power to local governments
Of course, this also led to rampant corruption under Hu and Wen
It has arrived, no official greed
The exaggeration of seeing promotion and wealth as two sides of the same coin
And this will also give Xi Jinping the name of anti-corruption in the future
Under the slogan of unparalleled political correctness, eradicate dissent and leave a foreshadowing
But why was there so much corruption at that time?
But the public’s evaluation of the government is much higher than it is today?
The reason is that
Officials under Hu and Wen could make a lot of money
The common people can also drink soup
In an era when the entire country’s economy was growing rapidly
Increments are like honey.
Lubricated the tense relationship between citizens and officials
Actually Chinese people never mind official corruption.
Otherwise, the two words promotion and wealth will not become a fixed combination
As long as your life can get better and better
The Chinese people’s tolerance for corruption
Perhaps the tallest in the world
Because only the officials are seen eating and drinking spicy food
Sheng Xiao every night
The common people will feel that they or their descendants
The opportunity to become such a privileged class
Life can have hope
So why doesn’t Xi Jinping continue the path of the Hu-Wen period?
The reason is, of course, Xi Jinping’s own personality and judgment
But more importantly
The Communist Party of China is indeed at this historical juncture in 2012
It has reached the point where reform is necessary
This reform was not forced by the United States
It’s not that China’s middle class is beginning to seek political power
It is that the legitimacy of the Communist Party of China as the only ruling group in China is beginning to lose
The legitimacy of political power in Chinese history
It is a matter that has been highly valued by all dynasties
This comes from the concept of destiny in the Chinese cultural tradition
Without a perfect explanation for the legitimacy of their own regime
Or tell a story that everyone can accept
Then the regime is extremely vulnerable to overthrow
Throughout ancient Chinese history, in addition to lineage inheritance
There are only two means that are seen as destiny
One is giving, whether voluntary
Or is it more common coercion?
Zen concessions are indisputable alternatives to government
For example, Emperor Xian of the Han Dynasty made Cao Pi
Sima Dewen of the Eastern Jin Dynasty let Emperor Wu of the Song Dynasty
After Zhou Gongdi Zen let Zhao Kuangyin and others
The alternative is violent revolution.
For example, Yuan and Song
Qingxieming
The original legitimacy of the Communist Party of China also derived from violent revolution
But here’s what makes it special.
The former Republic of China was not completely destroyed
But there is still a complete regime in Taiwan
This is also why even the most enlightened leaders of the Communist Party of China
The reason why we will never let go of the Taiwan issue
But anyway
The legitimacy of the Communist Party of China’s regime on the mainland
There is no doubt that it comes from violent revolution
But after a series of tragedies such as the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution
The Communist Party of China has actually proven that
The fundamentalist Communist Party of China is incapable of governing this country well
Can only bring endless disaster and panic
So in the 1980s
The Communist Party of China’s rule is actually in a state of precarious
The external environment has also changed
The outcome of the Cold War is clear
Almost all communist countries have abandoned the Communist Party
Beginning the path towards normalization
China is no exception
The only difference is that the process is forcibly interrupted by 8964
However, after the bloody massacre
The Communist Party of China has found another way
It can be regarded as the ruling group of the Communist Party of China
A betting agreement with all Chinese people
That is, using economic development in exchange for regime legitimacy
If you have lived in China and other capitalist countries for a long time
You will definitely have the same experience
That is, China is the most capitalist country in the world
In China
You can blatantly treat labor laws as waste paper
Unions are reduced to decoration
And the Chinese have nothing but complaints about it
But few people talk about government dereliction of duty
The reason is that the Communist Party of China’s propaganda department has been
Spare no effort to promote this ideology
Economic development comes first.
In the face of economic development
Core socialist values such as democracy, freedom, equality and the rule of law
None of it matters.
It will even subtly spread to Korea
And Taiwan’s economic development during the dictatorship
And authoritarian Singapore to support this view
And the most negative examples are cited
Democracy, of course, India and Latin America
This kind of argumentation is actually a kind of sophistry that the Communist Party of China is particularly good at
It will give some correct orphans
Achieve the goal of generalization
You can see it all over the world.
There is no doubt that the developed countries are almost all democracies.
And developing countries and lagging countries
The political system is very heterogeneous.
So the correct conclusion we can draw should be
Become a developed country
Most likely a democracy.
And dictatorships
It is highly unlikely that it will become a developed country
There are exceptions in every case
But the math already tells you which path is more successful
Contemporary Chinese thinking on economy first
It has reached the point of entering the mind and the soul
Therefore, in the continuous development of the economy
The age when some people ate meat and some people drank soup
The regime of the Communist Party of China can be said to be as stable as Mount Tai
But there’s no difference between success and failure.
The Communist Party of China places all its legitimacy on the string of economic development
It is destined that this regime is extremely prone to bipolar swings
You can understand as
The Communist Party of China is a psychopath with bipolar disorder
If a person has this disease
You’re going to be swaying through a period of overwhelming confidence and extreme depression and depression.
No intermediate state
The Communist Party of China is destined to return when the regime is extremely stable
Jumping left and right in the wind and rain
The trigger is the economy
We don’t even need a recession like 2024.
It just needs to develop faster than before
Society has entered a state of stability
The CCP’s two-way emotional barrier will slide directly from what everyone expects to fall
At the end of the Hu-Wen period
China’s economic development has weakened
This is not actually a problem with the Hu-Wen policy
But no country can maintain high economic growth forever
It is important to note that
The source of the legitimacy of the Communist Party of China is
High-speed economic growth
High speed and growth are both indispensable
A country that doesn’t have leaps and bounds in technology.
The growth curve is bound to flatten
A slowing economy is not a good thing
But it’s not such a bad thing.
It’s just a natural thing to do.
However, for the Communist Party of China, which always wants to win the day
Just leveling off.
Enough to sentence the ruling group to death
In fact, South Korea and Taiwan have come out of a very clear
Can be copied.
It has been proven to be a viable path to success
That is active reform
They are all after the economic development has reached a bottleneck
Launch democratic reform
Successfully piercing the middle-income trap
Enter a truly developed country
This path is the most ideal
If China can follow this path
1.4 billion Chinese should become
The luckiest group of descendants of Yanhuang in history
Can you imagine a liberal democracy?
open and inclusive
China, with a unified market of 1.4 billion and a good infrastructure
What a great blessing it will be for all mankind
So far, this road cannot be said to be completely cut off
But the possibility of practice is very slim
the next best thing
The Singapore model is more practical
Implement the true rule of law
Slowly advancing democracy
Examine Chinese traditional values carefully
It is a fact that must be admitted
In fact, the Chinese are not particularly interested in democracy
Because traditional Chinese are too far from politics
There has been a lack of opportunities to participate in politics since ancient times
Naturally, they lose the ability to participate in politics
So the Singapore model was once seen as
China’s most likely path to political transformation
The rule of law in an authoritarian system
Personally
I believe in making China an American-style democracy overnight
Or the Westminster system.
It’s not realistic.
The ideal state is a state ruled by law that has been under authoritarian system for a long time
It takes a long time to develop a sense of citizenship
Enhance the ability to participate in politics
Then democracy was realized through the Korean-Taiwan path
Unfortunately
Xi Jinping did not choose any of these
He has created a path that has never been followed before
A romanticism full of communist fantasies
And the Chinese imperialist concept of destiny
Packaging under the name of a counterfeit product
This is the Chinese Dream
Everyone can know
The Chinese dream is a parody of the American dream.
The emergence and practice of the American Dream is unique in history
This idea is rooted in the Declaration of Independence that all men are created equal
And enjoy the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness
Specific to personal practice
That anyone can reach the peak through their own efforts
The reason why the American Dream can become an American belief
Benefit from the system of the American free economy
And social mobility at all times
And the excellent geographical resource potential
This can also be seen as an example of American exceptionalism
So what exactly does the Chinese dream refer to?
First of all, it can be ruled out that all men are created equal
And continuously improve your living conditions through your own efforts
Because the main body of the Chinese dream is not Chinese
It was China as a unified empire.
The Chinese Dream is Xi Jinping’s solution
A Social Experiment in the Legitimacy of CCP Rule
As mentioned above
After 8964, the legitimacy of the Communist Party of China’s regime was tied to rapid economic development
Ideas and politics diverge
And Xi Jinping wants to change this dilemma
He tried to pass the grand concept of the Chinese dream
Merging economics and ideas into one
Build an industrial Sparta based on a cult of personality
It often appears together with the Chinese dream
So here’s another big idea.
That is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation
The Chinese Dream and the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation
It’s two sides of the same coin.
The fans of the Chinese dream are mostly urban petty bourgeoisie
And people who are relatively wealthy in material wealth
The Chinese Dream is a vision for the future
These people are already living relatively well in China
You need a better illusion to get them to support you.
The audience of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation
Just poor education, of course.
Lower social status small pink and old pink groups
Due to their poor historical knowledge and vision
The CCP can quite easily implant a so-called Han and Tang Dynasty prosperity into them
The beautiful fantasy of the coming of all nations
And with the ultimate goal of reviving the status of the traditional Chinese Empire
You can see it.
For individual Chinese
Whether it is the Chinese dream or the great rejuvenation
It’s all extremely illusory grand concepts
There are no executable steps
No clear goals
But when our perspective shifts from the common people to Xi Jinping
When he sees China as his pocket
You get the whole picture.
It is embodied in three aspects
The first is, of course, the establishment of an authoritarian system that borders on a monarchy.
In fact, Xi Jinping now
Except for the absence of the title of emperor
Has used all the actual power of the emperor
He used Wang Qishan and other cruel officials to root out dissidents
Destroyed the Tuanpai
Shanghai Gang
Even princelings and other forces
Through various working groups
Realized the overhead of the administrative power of the State Council
Exclusive power
In addition, so-called party branches were established in various companies in various places
Party and mass service centers and other organizations
Further dismantling the power of civil society organizations
Realizing Xi Jinping’s will can be directly conveyed from Zhongnanhai to the grassroots
This can be confirmed in the three years of COVID-19 disaster
The second is in diplomacy
China has completely abandoned the strategy of keeping a low profile
And assume the role of new world leader
Connecting Eurasia from the Belt and Road Initiative
And the economic colonization of Africa can be seen
Xi Jinping’s Ideal China
Should rule the world island composed of three continents, Eurasia and Africa
World Island Theory is a way to analyze global geopolitics
The core idea is that the earth is made up of two parts
Europe, Asia, and Africa are the central islands of the world
Is the largest region
The most populous landmass is a whole
The world island is surrounded by a series of isolated lands
Such as North and South America
Australia, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and other island countries
We are unsure whether Xi Jinping has been influenced by the World Island Theory
But for now, he’s actually trying to integrate Eurasia and Africa.
So it can also be seen from the propaganda caliber of the Communist Party of China
China’s attitude towards Europe is much better than that of the United States
Because from a Chinese perspective
Europe is the possibility of becoming an ally in the future
But America can’t
And from Xi Jinping on rail transportation
Especially the preference of high-speed rail
He believes that high-speed rail transportation within the mainland
Can be faster than ocean transportation
It can make Europe, Asia and Africa more closely integrated in transportation
So we can see
China would rather spend its money in Africa and the Middle East
They don’t want to invest in education or health care at home.
To improve people’s lives
So when Little Pink experienced that it was difficult to go to school and expensive to see a doctor
Don’t complain about your motherland
Little Pink’s sacrifice is to pay for Xi Jinping’s greater Eurasian-African co-prosperity circle
The third is economic
Obviously, Xi Jinping prefers a planned economy to a market economy
But he knew it.
We want to maintain China’s competitiveness
A fully planned economy will not work
After four decades of reform and opening up, China wants to return to the North Korean model
The resistance is no smaller than China’s complete transition to a free economy
So Xi Jinping’s economic vision
In fact, it is the basic socialist economic system that China has always had
Public ownership as the main body
Multiple forms of ownership develop together
Although that may be true, in fact, in the past few decades
China’s public economy has maintained some restraint
It leaves a vast space for the development of the private economy
But Xi Jinping wants to change that
He believes that the disadvantage of a market economy is that power is dispersed
Hard to do big things
Examples that are often spoken of within the walls
After the United States ended the space race
Stop investing heavily in aerospace
As a result, American space technology appears to have come to a standstill
Of course, now private space companies like SPACE X
Hit the Communist Party in the face again
What Xi Jinping wants is
Whether it is a central state-owned enterprise or a private enterprise
Follow his command
When he said he wanted to refine the chip
Everyone should go in this direction
When he talked about developing electric cars
Xiaomi, which makes mobile phones, and Evergrande, which builds unfinished buildings, have also started to build factories and make cars
So the Chinese dream and great rejuvenation in Xi Jinping’s mind
Why can it be declared bankrupt in 2024?
The immediate cause is the COVID-19 pandemic accident
And the root cause is a lack of awareness of human limitations
The essence of a planned economy remains human
Because no matter how grand the plan is
It takes real people to set it up and execute it.
The Communist Party’s planned economy
In today’s China, it all depends on Xi Jinping’s personal preferences
Maybe he was right.
But more likely, it’s out of touch.
Xi Jinping obviously will not admit that he is not omnipotent
He really thought he could point the way for all of humanity.
So this misconception of human limitations
Essentially determined
What’s planned is bound to change
The COVID-19 pandemic is this accident
Xi Jinping wants to maintain his face
Anxious to the world
In particular, the United States has proven the superiority of the Chinese system
You can only go black on the road of clearing and sealing control.
The price will be a complete blow to the Chinese economy
The last glimpse of China’s economy in 2021
And it’s been pretty bad ever since.
In just two years, things took a sharp turn for the worse.
For the government
Already barely balanced finances collapsed like an avalanche
From public institutions to government agencies
Salary cuts and layoffs are a pity
The contradiction between central finance and local finance is imminent
As many times in the history of the Chinese Empire
For the people
The fertility rate and flat tide are the silent resistance of the Chinese people
In particular, the rate of decline has been appalling.
Has fallen to the second to last in the world
And being last in line for the foreseeable future is not a dream.
The Communist Party of China’s policy of opening up two children and three children
As comical as the ridiculous policies of the late ancient dynasties
Laying flat tides hit Chinese consumption hard
Anyone who has studied economics knows
Consumption is the starting point of all economic activities
It is the engine of all social activities
There is consumption
Problem can be solved
There was no consumption.
Only a dead end
So we see that after the epidemic
The United States, where consumption is booming, quickly emerged from the downturn
And China is stuck in a deflationary trap
The COVID-19 accident poses the greatest threat to the Chinese Communist Party
In fact, it is not yet financial and private
It is the prestige that the Communist Party of China has been trying to maintain since 8964
Collapsed
I always thought
The number of small pinks in China is large.
But their true proportion is much lower than their internet presence
Because in the environment inside the wall
Only Pink Speech can be spread
Over time
The voice of reason chooses silence.
But silence doesn’t mean they don’t exist.
The white paper revolution is a classic example
The night before the white paper revolution.
No one would have thought
College campuses often considered the hardest hit by pink
It’s possible to organize a massive protest
Shanghai, the birthplace of the Communist Party of China
People can go head-to-head with the government on the streets
In Xinjiang, a land ravaged by the Communist Party of China’s iron fist
Brave citizens can storm city hall
Let those high-ranking CCP officials shiver
Xi Jinping steps down
The slogan for the Communist Party to step down
It has spread like wildfire through all major cities in China
Not only does it discredit the Communist Party
It also made the Chinese people aware of
It turns out that civil rights work.
Many people thought the white paper revolution didn’t last.
I’m so sorry.
But we must also recognize the role of the white paper revolution
For the Communist Party
Face is actually more important than lining
Whether it is the slap in the face of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan
Or the boomerang of fake news in Edwards, Switzerland
These incidents that damage the prestige of the Communist Party of China
Is dragging the CCP into the abyss of Tacitus’s trap
Except for the COVID-19 pandemic
There are many similar accidents
Let the Chinese dream come to nothing in 2024
For example, the emergence of AI technology in the United States
Musk’s rocket recovery and starship achieve a leap forward in space technology
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is mired in a protracted war
And things like that, big and small.
It is beyond the control of Xi Jinping’s personal ability
Ultimately, it led to China’s current difficult state
The essence of interest is the expectation of the future
If people’s expectations for the future are higher than they are now
Then it will push interest rates up
If not, it goes down.
People can lie
But the numbers don’t.
What is the significance of China’s future low interest rate era?
It goes without saying
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